Was There a Russian Intelligence Failure in Georgia?

Checked Yermolin's article ... first impression is that it might be named something like "nothing about everything in Russias intelligence services" written in Yermolin's permanent frustration about "how bad everything is organized in our state (Russia)" ... However I can not release myself from a feeling that this is just a piece of puzzle in Russia-made picture for the rest of the world named "we are not guilty, they started first !!!" Because the hypothesis that georgians "HAD A PLAN" works the best for .... yes, correct - for Russia !

This argument from its inner logic says that the war was not a provocation of Russia. Can we believe to this? I would doubt that. Facts: - Russians had army near the boarder (they used it very fast and with good results) - They had done training missions - They had repaired the railway (to transport the munitions) This makes us believe that they were preparing for something. The question is - when and what. The conclusions might be that Russians really did not know that Georgians will use militar power in the exact date. Still they had a plan and their actions in the war were done according to the plan. This would make sense knowing three facts - first that Russians used inappropriately strong military forces (for example navy); that in Russia you may never know what is going to happen and there can happen things by their own logic; Saakashvilli is emotional and might have given the order on his own.

The spies did not uncover the plan because probably there wasn't any. The Georgian action was caused by provocations, which were probably caused other provocations, and so on.

Could be the case that Russian intelligence services knew it very well. Let's not forget, that Saakashvilli warned a long time ago that they may be heading for war. If there is a long term Russia's master plan we will see it quickly enough. If we stick with Georgia's arguments, that osetins (russian citisens) increasingly provoked the conflict and it could be that Russians either tested international response, tried to demonstrate US as incapable of doing anything or which could be even more likely - Russians tried to get bargaining chip to trade with countries like Iran or North Korea more openly and freely .

Quite interesting angle! Thanks!

VERY GOOD point indeed! The fact is that the PM of Russia still governs his fiefdom like a ringleader (old manners are hard to forget:). Also it shows the characteristics of the Russian soul. Intelligence gathering, tedious interviews, evaluation and planning are too burdensome and waring down. Thus, they decided to act swiftly...